If Trump Was Supposed to Be Good for Crypto, Why is Bitcoin Falling?

Qamar Zaman (Q)

The Future of Crypto
February 28, 2025

Bitcoin Market Analysis: Technical Outlook for the Next 60, 90, and 120 Days

By Qamar Zaman, News Reporter – Coffee with Q

Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, and investing in Bitcoin or any other digital asset carries risks. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

The expectation that a Trump presidency would be favorable for Bitcoin was based on his pro-business stance and potential deregulation. However, Bitcoin’s recent downturn contradicts that assumption. Here’s why:

“Buy the Rumor, Sell the News” Effect – Many traders anticipated a Trump win would be bullish for Bitcoin and priced it in early. Once his position became more certain, profit-taking began, leading to a pullback.
Macroeconomic and Market Uncertainty – Interest rate policies, global economic slowdowns, and stock market volatility have impacted all risk assets, including Bitcoin.
Regulatory Confusion – While Trump may take a more crypto-friendly stance, the current regulatory environment remains unclear. Investors are cautious until more definitive policies are outlined.
Profit-Taking by Whales – Institutional investors and Bitcoin whales who accumulated during the rally are taking profits, causing temporary downward pressure on prices.
Trump’s Mixed Signals on Crypto – Trump has historically been critical of Bitcoin, calling it a scam. While his stance has softened, markets need clarity on his actual policies before rallying further.

Bitcoin’s Recent Price Action and Market Context

Bitcoin’s rally to an all-time high of $109,228 in early 2025 was followed by a sharp correction, dropping over 20%. This pullback has raised concerns among traders and investors. The expectation that a Trump presidency would be favorable for Bitcoin has not yet materialized in price action. Instead, a mix of macroeconomic uncertainty, regulatory developments, and profit-taking has led to a downturn.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

Support Levels:

$80,000–$82,000: This level aligns with Bitcoin’s 200-day moving average and has acted as strong support in previous corrections.
$74,000: A historically significant zone where Bitcoin consolidated before its late 2024 rally.
$64,000: An extreme bearish scenario where Bitcoin could find deeper support if the correction extends further.

Resistance Levels:

$90,000: Previously strong support, now a key resistance level.
$98,000–$100,000: This range coincides with the 50-day moving average and is a critical hurdle before reclaiming six figures.
$109,000: The all-time high level from January 2025, serving as major resistance for any bullish breakout.

Trend Analysis: Where is Bitcoin Heading?

Bitcoin is currently in a corrective phase after forming a double-top pattern around $109,000. This bearish structure was confirmed when BTC broke below $90,000. The short-term trend remains bearish, characterized by lower highs and lower lows. However, Bitcoin is still above its 200-day moving average, indicating that the long-term macro trend remains bullish unless major supports break.

If BTC holds above $80,000 and reclaims $90,000 in the coming weeks, the correction may be over, leading to a renewed rally toward previous highs. Conversely, a breakdown below $80,000 could trigger a deeper correction toward $70,000.

Technical Indicators and Signals

Relative Strength Index (RSI):

Recently reached oversold levels, indicating potential for a short-term bounce.
On the weekly timeframe, RSI suggests a cooling of upward momentum.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):

Bearish crossover on the weekly chart, similar to previous cycle tops.
The daily MACD remains negative but could signal a bullish reversal if a crossover occurs in the coming weeks.

Moving Averages:

Bitcoin is currently below its 50-day MA, reinforcing the short-term downtrend.
The 200-day MA ($80K range) is acting as strong support. If BTC holds above this, the long-term trend remains intact.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility:

Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the drop but are now tightening, indicating a potential breakout in the coming weeks.
A move toward the upper Bollinger Band ($100K) would be bullish, while a drop to the lower band ($70K) would signal further downside risk.

Bitcoin Price Forecast for the Next 60, 90, and 120 Days

Short Term (Next 60 Days):

Expected range: $80K – $100K
Likely scenario: A relief rally toward $90K–$98K if BTC holds current support levels.
Bearish case: A breakdown below $80K leading to a test of $74K – $75K.

Medium Term (90 Days):

Expected range: $90K – $110K
If Bitcoin rebounds and sustains momentum, it could test all-time highs ($109K).
If weakness persists, consolidation between $75K–$90K is likely.

Long Term (120 Days):

If Bitcoin follows historical post-halving cycles, $120K+ is a potential target.
If the correction extends, $65K – $75K could act as a basing zone before another rally.

Institutional Sentiment and Whale Activity

Large Bitcoin holders (whales) have been accumulating during this correction, signaling long-term confidence.
Institutional investors initially reduced exposure in February but recent on-chain data shows renewed buying activity.
The approval of a U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETF and increasing corporate adoption could drive demand higher.

Michael Saylor’s Perspective: MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Strategy

Michael Saylor, Chairman of MicroStrategy, remains extremely bullish on Bitcoin:

MicroStrategy now holds over 500,000 BTC, having accumulated more during the recent correction.
Saylor believes Bitcoin will eventually surpass gold’s market cap, implying a $1M+ BTC price in the long run.
He predicts that with increasing institutional adoption, Bitcoin will become “unaffordable” for most retail investors.
He cites Spot Bitcoin ETF approvals, fair value accounting changes, and banking integration as key catalysts for Bitcoin’s future growth.

Final Thoughts: Where is Bitcoin Headed?

While Bitcoin’s recent drop has shaken short-term traders, its fundamental outlook remains strong. If major support holds, Bitcoin could soon resume its march toward new highs. Investors should watch for macroeconomic developments, institutional flows, and technical confirmations of a trend reversal.

Qamar Zaman is a News Reporter for Coffee with Q, covering cryptocurrency, financial markets, and emerging trends in blockchain technology.